towards a blueprint

In Towards a blueprint, the national Marine Biodiversity Hub distils the findings of more than eight years of research supported by the Australian Government.

Towards a blueprint shows how Australia can expand its institutional capacity to meet the reporting needs of the Department of the Environment. It identifies existing data for areas where monitoring can begin, and assesses Australia’s capability to collect new monitoring data as a basis for decision making.

This evidence-based approach is essential to understanding why ocean systems are changing across the third largest ocean territory in the world.

Key Ecological Features (KEFs) are parts of the ocean that are identified in the Australian Government’s marine bioregional plans as highly valued for their importance to biodiversity or ecological function and integrity. As such, they are an important starting point for developing monitoring in the Commonwealth Marine Area.

Fifty-four KEFs have been identified in Commonwealth waters during marine planning processes. As the map of Australia illustrates, KEFs come in many shapes and sizes and Towards a blueprint divides them into six groups for reporting purposes. These are areas of enhanced pelagic productivity, canyons, deep seabeds, seamounts, shelf reefs and seabeds.

While the oceanography of most KEF groups has been studied, the level of biological sampling varies. Areas of enhanced pelagic productivity are the best understood, and shelf seabeds and deep seabeds the least.

To provide a foundation for monitoring and reporting, qualitative ecosystem models were built for 33 KEFs. The models are based on a conceptual understanding of how the KEF systems function, gained from regional specialists. Many KEFs have several slightly different models (model groups) that allow for uncertainties in understanding.

Regional specialists were also consulted to identify the human pressures thought to affect each KEF. These pressures were combined with the KEF ecosystem models to create medium-term pressure scenarios. Between four and 25 pressure scenarios were identified for each KEF (including combinations of pressures).

Most human pressures, including those associated with fishing, shipping and oil and gas activities, are well documented. The effects of climate change pressure on KEFs are varied, and may include increased water temperature, and changes to ocean currents (such as the East Australian Current) and upwellings (such as the Bonney Coast Upwelling).

The KEF models encompass components of the ecosystem, such as phytoplankton, that have potential to be monitored as long-term indicators. These components may increase, decrease, or remain unchanged under each pressure scenario, but sometimes in unpredictable directions. The ideal indicators for each KEF are those that respond in predictable ways across all its pressure scenarios.

For the nine enhanced pelagic productivity KEFs, the predicted response to pressure scenarios of some indicators has been compared with empirical observations. This demonstrates the ‘prediction followed by observation’ philosophy that underlies the blueprint approach to indicator selection. For example, satellite observations were analysed to tease out the long-term trend in phytoplankton biomass and ocean upwelling.

In the example of the Bonney Coast Upwelling KEF, the indicators that respond in a predictable way across all five pressure scenarios are phytoplankton, upwelling, krill, blue whales, and nutrients in the sunlit zone. Of these, observed trends are available only for phytoplankton and upwelling. Sustained observations of krill, blue whales and sunlit-zone nutrients, however, are not available, but could be prioritised in a monitoring program.

Canyons: around all area of Australia except Queensland coast and Great Australia Bight).

Deep sea beds - sections extending off Western Australian coast from Port Headland to Esperance and in the Pacific Ocean just north of New Zealand.

Shelf reefs - regions off Queensland mid north coast, Great Australian Bight, Western Australia's south east coast and northern coasts, and Northern Territory.

Seamounts - scattered in the outer EEZ areas from mid-Queensland coast to south of Tasmania).

Area of enhanced pelagic productivity - spanning offshore from New South Wales coast into Tasman Sea, north of New Zealand being the two largest regions, east coast of Victoria, around South Australia Coast, adn several small regions around southern Western Australia coast.

Shelf sea beds - significant area of the Gulf of Carpentaria including coastal areas in this region.

The process of comparing predicted and observed trends in indicators provides consistent information on the effects of pressures, and leads to an improved understanding of KEF systems. If indicators behave as predicted, confidence in system understanding will increase, and so will the usefulness of the indicators for reporting on status and trends for biodiversity, ecological function and integrity.

A change in indicator trend would be a signal to managers and other stakeholders that something was happening to a valued system. The prediction-observation process would help to explain why. This process is repeatable and can be updated as new information comes available.

Australia has the capacity to deploy a wide range of monitoring equipment and to embrace new technologies as they become practicable. Towards a blueprint identifies a broad range of monitoring gear, and determines which gears can be cost-effectively and routinely deployed to collect KEF indicator data for reporting on status and trends.

For example, earth observing satellites are a useful means for monitoring enhanced pelagic productivity KEFs (where phytoplankton is a key indicator). Instrumented gliders and sub-surface profiling floats would also suit these areas, and have relatively low deployment constraints.

Areas that are more difficult and more expensive to monitor, such as canyons and seamounts, present the greatest challenges. Remote autonomous underwater vehicles are suited to these KEFs, but few are available in Australia due to the relative expense of deep water operation and deployment. They are likely to become more affordable, however, as technology advances, and one day may be deployed routinely in relatively large numbers.

Existing data relevant to KEFs have been collated in the Australian region marine data aggregation tool (ARMADA). ARMADA locates and tallies physical and biological observations, highlighting potentially useful datasets and the adequacy of data at a national scale.

Government agencies and stakeholders can share and link their monitoring data via the Australian Ocean Data Network.

Implementing a sustained KEF monitoring program involves extending observations, analysis and data management to allow national and regional reporting on status and trends in KEF indicators. Towards a blueprint identifies options that would support a staged implementation of such a program.

An investment strategy for future monitoring should consider influencing and accessing national marine infrastructure and assets such as the Integrated Marine Observing System and the Marine National Facility research vessel Investigator, as well as working with industry partners. These considerations should be made in the context of the National Marine Science Plan.

Good governance is a prerequisite for effective monitoring and reporting and will be needed to transition from research to operational monitoring. It should provide vision, leadership and supervision on goals, practices and procedures, and coordinate groups involved in the collection, management, analysis and reporting of monitoring data. Australia has existing groups that could take on this role.

Existing knowledge is sufficient to begin monitoring in more than half of Australia’s KEFs, provided this is supported by ongoing research and analysis. Existing knowledge is insufficient, however, to develop even a conceptual understanding for 42% of KEFs. Filling this knowledge gap is critical for Australia to develop a comprehensive understanding of the state of its oceans, and is a research priority for the National Environmental Science Programme Marine Biodiversity Hub.